According to a report from the Centre for Population, net inward migration to Australia is set to rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 235,000 people a year. In 2020-21, COVID travel restrictions resulted in the loss of 85,000 people, marking the first net migration loss since the second world war. After borders reopened in late 2021, a sharp increase in migrant arrivals led to a net inflow of 150,000 in 2021-22. This trend is expected to continue and increase to 235,000 in 2022-23. The report also found that if the pandemic had not occurred, cumulative net overseas migration was expected to be 473,000 persons higher from 2019-20 to 2025-26.
The return of international students drove the migration rebound last year, with 122,000 more students in Australia in October 2022 compared to December 2021, including 36,000 more Chinese students, up 90%. Offshore student visa grants from January to September 2022 were the highest ever, while working holiday visas also surpassed 2019 levels. At September’s jobs and skills summit, the Albanese government increased the permanent migration cap from 160,000 to 195,000, a decision that further strengthened the return of family and skilled visa arrivals.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said that the centre’s 2022 statement, confirmed that migration was “part of the solution” to skills and labour shortages in the country. He stated that the government would ensure that the economy has the number of skilled workers it needs and promised to build a bigger and better-trained workforce in 2023 through a review of the migration program and the upcoming employment white paper. Chalmers also mentioned that “Australia’s migration settings need to be sustainable, serve Australia’s national interest, and not be a substitute for training and building the capacity of our domestic workforce.”
On Sunday, the government reimposed preflight COVID testing for passengers from China, which raised fears that trade, migration, and the arrival of international students might once again be disrupted. However, most business and education groups, including the Group of Eight universities’ chief executive, Vicki Thomson, and the chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Andrew McKellar, gave cautious support for the measure.
The report noted “significant uncertainties” in projecting migration patterns, including the “upside risk” of fewer people leaving Australia than forecast and the “downside risk” that more might leave. Student numbers, in particular, are sensitive to “movement restrictions in student source countries.”
In conclusion, the Centre for Population’s report indicates that net inward migration to Australia is set to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, driven by the return of international students and the increase in the permanent migration cap. The government’s reimposed preflight COVID testing for passengers from China may have some impact on international arrivals, but most business and education groups have given cautious support for the measure. The government is taking steps to ensure the country has the number of skilled workers it needs, and a review of the migration program is underway, with the aim of building a bigger and better-trained workforce in 2023.
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